셋 오버 셋보단 탑 원 or 투페어 느낌 찐한디 프리플랍 액션은 안적혀 있어서 애매하지만

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2018.08.13 15:55:53

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2018.08.13 16:24:05

2018.08.13 17:37:38

2018.08.13 21:11:22

You're playing a $5/$10 NLHE game at the Bellagio. It's folded to you in mid position, where you raise to $25 with 8 8. A lone opponent in the cutoff seat calls. He has $1360 in front of him before the hand begins and you have him covered. Your reputation is about average and you've had a decent session, mixing your play up a bit not getting too out of line.

The opponent is some sort of lawyer from the East Coast, whom you gather visits Vegas a few times a year to play golf and poker. He's in his 60s and has some money to blow, but he's been at the table for a few hours and you gather than his play is fairly ABC, leaning a bit toward passivity. He's not playing too many hands per se, but maybe more than he should since he's a fairly mediocre postflop player. You thought you saw him bluff once but not in a huge pot. He's not a total fish by any means but is probably a slightly losing player in this game, even before the rake.

The call (rather than 3-bet) is fairly common for him in position. It probably means pairs and a lot of suited stuff. You're not sure how often he'd play middling offsuit aces like ATo and offsuit Broadway cards but they're perhaps not totally foreign to him in this spot. With all that said, you didn't know him from Adam a few hours earlier so these reads are solid but not foolproof.

The flop is K 9 3. You bet $35 into the $65 pot and he calls fairly quickly.

You spike a set on the turn with 8. You bet $100 into the $135. He calls again without making a show of it.

The river is the 5. You bet $250 into the $335 pot. He says "all-in" fairly quietly and somewhat neatly shoves his remaining ~$1,200 in chips into the the pot.

You're calling $950 to win $1,770 so you need to have the best hand about 35 percent of the time to make it correct. How often do you think you're ahead? If you could give your best estimate (XX percent) of the probability given the information I've given you and your general poker knowledge, that would be cool -- this is not a trick question or anything.


https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-high-stakes-pl-nl/sanity-check-88-hand-1199549/

2018.08.14 06:26:42

2018.08.14 13:43:34

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